Panama News

By José González Pinilla for La Prensa - The inclusion in the primary voting register of more than 65,000 young people who will be older than 18 years of age before 2 May 2009 will life the number of eligible voters to 2,228,377 (2.2 million). That is to say that in the next national election which will be held on 3 May 2009 there will be 229,000 more eligible voters than in the 2004 elections according to numbers from the Electoral Tribunal. The final version of the electoral register must be ready by 3 February 2009. In 2004 1,999,553 people voted. In 2009 there will be 2,228,377 eligible voters. More than 55,000 people will not be eligible to vote. The largest voting block by age is young people aged 18 to 30 years old, with about 725,000 thousand voters.
Editor's Comment: Ricardo Martinelli has been catering (hard) to the younger voter crowd, throwing concerts and actively seeking out the support of popular artists and musicians, and he may be developing an edge in this category. The overall growth in the base of eligible voters shows a 11% increase in 2009 compared to 2004, and almost by default all of those guys are going to be in the 18 - 30 demographic. And, according to this article, there will be 65,000 new first-time voters who will be turning 18 before the election. In 2004 there was a 76.9% participation rate - meaning there were about 1.5 million votes cast by the 1.9 million eligible voters. There's no reason to think that level of participation or interest will change, so you can expect about 1.7 million total votes to be cast nationwide this time around in May 2009.
Opposition Pie Slice: It looks like 2009 is setting up to be a replay of 2004. The last time around the opposition was split three ways, between the incumbent Arnulfista party's Jose Miguel Aleman who only got 16% of the vote, up and coming outsider Ricardo Martinelli who only managed 5% of the vote, and outsider and third party candidate Guillermo Endara who almost pulled off and upset with 30% of the vote. Martin Torrijos, running with the consolidated support of the PRD, won the election with 47%. As it looks right now Martinelli and Varela from the Panamanista party are going to be dividing the opposition, and there is an outside chance that they will come together on one ticket. But in reality I think that's not going to happen. I think both Martinelli and Varela will cling to their dreams right up to the election, and in effect they will divide and conquer one another. Of course there's always the chance that Guillermo Endara will run again and actually appear on the ballot, further weakening the chances of an opposition victory. So again, another election with three opposition candidates means an almost guaranteed win for the PRD (either Balbina Herrera or Juan Carlos Navarro - whoever wins the 7 September 2008 PRD primary.)
The Unified Opposition Theory: Call this the "Noriega" theory: The last time all segments and elements of the Panamanian political opposition was unified was in the April 1988 election - in which the opposition all got together to defeat the military dictator Manuel Antonio Noriega. Some of the characters who came together to form that coalition were from relatively diverse political backgrounds and leanings. But, they all had one thing in common - a desire to beat Noriega and regain control of the country. Think George Bush for President, with Hillary Clinton and Ross Perot running as Vice Presidents on the same ticket - pretty diverse bedfellows. Since then, the opposition has never been united in any election. And when the opposition splits the PRD wins. Always has, always will.
What Might Happen: If Juan Carlos Varela and Ricardo Martinelli can through some miracle form a political union before the May 2009 election then the opposition has an outside chance of winning. If you add up the results from the 2004 election, 30% for Endara, 16% for Aleman, and 5% for Martinelli, then the collective (unified) opposition vote would have been 51% to Torrijos' 47%, a squeaker of a win but a win nontheless. Of course if that happens then all of the other "also ran" opposition types will have to fall in line with the unified opposition. Guillermo Endara might be old but he's not stupid - he will throw his waning support behind the Varela-Martinelli ticket. The Union Patriotica has already thrown in with Martinelli. The other nickel and dime guys like Molirena, Solidaridad, and Vanguardia de la Patria will all give up and toss in as well, eventually. Mireya Moscoso will provide her support to the unified opposition candidate, and in effect her support will probably drive votes to the PRD.
Damaged PRD Goods: The opposition will also be aided by the fact that whoever the PRD runs (Herrera or Navarro), that candidate will be ripe for cannon fire and negative attack ads. Both of them have significant "negatives" which they are mutually ignoring during this relatively friendly PRD primary campaign, but you can bet the opposition won't be as nice during the general election campaign and runup to the national election. "Excuse me, Balbina, you've got a little CEMIS dribbling down your chin, right there..." Martin is well spoken, intelligent, gives a great speech, and remains one of Panama's most popular political figures. Balbina Herrera and Juan Carlos Navarro are not as "electable" as Martin Torrijos was in 2004.
My Plan for an Opposition Victory: If they want a chance to win, Varela and Martinelli should agree (right now) that Varela will head the ticket for the 2009 election, that Martinelli will be his first Vice President, and that Martinelli will head the ticket in 2014. That would give Martinelli five more years to walk in the shoes of the people, continue to build his name recognition, and to actually spend some time working in and for an active administration. I don't think Martinelli should head the ticket for the same reasons that I don't think Balbina Herrera should head the PRD ticket - she would have been perfect for the Mayor of Panama City seat, but she's just not quite ready for prime time as the Panamanian president. Martinelli is still just a businessman who is capable of making sure I can buy a fresh head of lettuce in his store. He's wants to get elected, and he is gaining in popularity, but running a country is a little more complex than running a chain of supermarkets. He's always been a yapping-dog outsider politically speaking, and I think a five year term in the #2 spot will round him out. In reality, everything I said about Martinelli also applies to Varela, who also has never held a public office. I give the nod to Varela simply because the Panamanistas have more members and they will bring more votes to the table. But that might change in the next few months if Martinelli keeps sucking up free air.


elecciones 2009.


Aumenta cifra de votantes


José González Pinillajagonzalez@prensa.com


La inclusión en el padrón electoral preliminar de 65 mil jóvenes que cumplirán los 18 años de edad hasta el próximo 2 de mayo de 2009, elevará el número de votantes a 2 millones 228 mil 377.


Es decir, que para las elecciones del 3 de mayo del próximo año podrán votar unas 229 mil personas más que en los comicios de 2004, según cifras del Tribunal Electoral (TE). El próximo 3 de febrero debe estar lista la versión final del padrón electoral.


Números de electores


2004: Votaron un millón 999 mil 553 personas.


2009: Podrán votar 2 millones 228 mil 377 de panameños.


EXCLUIDOS: No podrán sufragar unas 55 mil personas.


MAYORÍA: El grupo de 18 a 30 años suma unos 725 mil.

More...